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Option pricing is a mystery to most traders. They struggle to comprehend terms like implied and historical volatility or intrinsic and time value, or the “Greeks” (Delta, vega, theta, gamma, rho…). These terms are intimidating and my experience suggests that at least half the folks you hear talking about them do not really understand very much about them. It is important to at least be intellectually honest about it and know what you don’t know. It is also a good idea to debunk your vocabulary and get what you do know (or think you know) right. And because it is easy to get a head ache from trying to read and comprehend the myriad of equations and models generated from minds of multi-degreed scholars speaking a language only they seem to understand, it is comforting to know you do not have to learn a whole lot about the technical math soup. It is however, mandatory that you gain some working skills in how to recognize and flow with the option prices or you will get whipsawed and shredded by them.

It is not unlike the engineering, manufacturing, physics and computer technology that goes into a modern car. Any 10 year old can start it and drive down the road or off a cliff. The skill to use it correctly is mandatory but the technical wizardry to understand and construct it is not.

So option pricing must be understood in order to trade with any consistency. One major point is that option pricing is not static or consistent. The pricing structure is a moving target because the interaction of the market and the Market Makers constantly adjust the pricing.

Price comes from the floor… Models come from laboratories and do not dictate where the price will go. Rather, they try to predict it.

Historically, the idea of options is not new. Ancient Romans, Grecians, and Phoenicians traded options against outgoing cargoes from their local seaports. Modern techniques derive their impetus from a formal history dating back to 1877.

* 1877- Charles Castelli wrote a book entitled The Theory of Options in Stocks and Shares.
* 1900- Louis Bachelier is recognized for the earliest known analytical valuation for options. His work interested a professor at MIT named Paul Samuelson.
* 1955- Samuelson wrote an unpublished paper titled, “Brownian Motion in the Stock Market.”
* 1956- A. James Boness wrote, “A Theory and Measurement of Stock Option Value”. His work served as a precursor to that of Fischer Black and Myron Scholes.
* 1969-1973- Fischer Black and Myron Scholes introduced their landmark option pricing model

No one discovered the “mother lode” but rather successive scholars added to the work of predecessors. Black and Scholes were noted with the Nobel Prize because of their leap forward and the remarkable accuracy of their model. Since 1973, other scholars have expanded the Black and Scholes Option Pricing Model.

* 1973- Robert Merton relaxed the assumption of no dividends.
* 1976- Jonathan Ingerson went one step further and relaxed the assumption of no taxes or transaction costs.
* 1976- Merton removed the restriction of constant interest rates. The results of this evolution are alarmingly accurate valuation models for stock options.

Ok, you think that is boring you should read some of the papers and equations (I have and it was not fun).

Modern option pricing techniques are among the most mathematically complex of all applied areas of finance but they have reached the point where they can calculate, with alarming accuracy. Most of the models and techniques employed today are rooted in the Black and Scholes model. One notable major advance is the Cox, Ross, Rubenstein binomial model widely used in more volatile stocks. In fact the brainiacs currently have 7-9 different models out there trying to out do each other. Here is the basic idea…

Option Pricing Model: A mathematical model is used to calculate the theoretical or fair value of an option. Inputs to option pricing models typically include:

* the price of the underlying instrument (stock): Fixed
* the option strike price: Fixed
* the time remaining till the expiration date: Fixed
* the volatility of the stock: Fixed
* the risk-free interest rate (e.g., the Treasury Bill interest rate): Fixed

The historical accuracy of the prediction is quite good but short term variations to the price models can and do “Kill” traders on a regular basis. In the long run the models are cool but they are THEORECTICAL and subject to CHANGE!!!!! The difficulty is that the vast majority of option traders do not have the knowledge or even the viewpoint to see the variation when they come. Nor are they able to reflect anomalies in the price structure when they look at an option chain to get a price.

This is one of the reasons I so dislike Prescriptive Option Strategies. The prescription dictates how to make the trade. It dictates buy/sell, strike price and which month. Well that’s just fine if the market stays constant and the price structure does not move. Ok… so “hey market, I am going to trade now… could you please just stay calm and act really normal and don’t do anything rash until I am through? Thanks, that would be real nice of you.” Somehow I don’t think it works that way. The real problem with most option traders is that they don’t know what they don’t know.

For example; today, with the stock at support and moving up it may or may not be a good idea to buy a call option. It may or may not be a good idea to trade the In the Money strike price. It may or may not be a good idea to trade the next month out. The pricing composition will reveal hidden potholes if you can read it. If the prescription can work, great! But if the pricing landscape is significantly off, you may have a prescription for disaster. Ignorance may be bliss but it is expensive.

Market Makers

One major area of misunderstanding is market makers. The market maker takes a risk by pricing and selling an option. The response by the market to the offering causes the market maker to make adjustments to the price. They have two goals… make as many traders as possible and try to make some money on most of the trades. They have two tools to try and make this work; the bid / ask spread and the cost of time. The market maker is taking the risk by entering into a contract with risk. They lay off that risk ASAP by either buying the same option (sell a 45 call and buy a 45 call) or buying stock to deliver in case of exercise. They neutralize their risk and collect a small premium for the transaction. If the buying and/or selling pressure, (coming from brokers and/or traders) starts to change they respond by pricing to meet the market action. They don’t know you, or stock you. They need you and don’t care if you make money or not. They just want your order flow. Many myths abound about market makers and you need to understand them and their motives. (See last newsletter: “Those Darn Market Makers”)

Volatility

Option pricing is most sensitive to volatility. The theoretical option price is derived using a historical volatility, usually 12 months. The model pricing reflects that time frame. Short term option trading and pricing is being done in an environment that is subject to current market whims and conditions.

The current climate can be very volatile and the long-term picture can be quite stable. That throws the pricing model off dramatically, but it is a tip to savvy traders. If the short term is more volatile than the historical, the prices will be pumped up and become expensive and unstable. Extra time value is pumped temporarily into the option to reflect the current conditions (higher perceived volatility). If the price action calms down or stabilizes, the “Fluff” can be drawn back out very quickly. For example, rising prices calm the market and reduce fear and volatility. The typical option trader does not see this and then feels violated and cheated when their stock moves in the direction of their trade and they don’t get the expected profit in the option. The market breathes a sigh and the volatility shrinks taking their profit with it.

An irony in the discrepancy between theoretical/fair value and the actual price is that the actual price is feeding the 12 month volatility and constantly adjusting it. Today’s erratic volatility will be smoothed into the ongoing, ever-adjusting, 12-month moving volatility number.

Next newsletter, I will introduce the X Factor Options Trading Graph and show you how to put all this stuff into a picture format. Pictures are easy to digest a lot of data (e.g. stock charts). My students often say, “Trading options without X Factor is like trading stocks without a chart”.

Options can seem simple as long as you don’t learn too much. But they can seem overwhelming if you try to learn too much. There is a happy medium. The ten year old does not have to become a manufacturer to start the car, but he does need some practice and maturing to get behind the wheel. Stay tuned.

See you in the free web seminars and I hope to see you in my “Trades Forge” 2-day trading camp.

Ryan Litchfield with Better Trades

Content Source: Better Trades & Bear Put Spreads
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Article Source: SuperPublisher.com

Do you consider yourself as an investor? This is a smart move if you know what you are doing. We all need to take a little time and invest for the future. The best way to ensure good and healthy retirement is through investment.

No one expects to work in a fast food at the age of 70 to be able to to make ends meet. Well, one way to avoid such a dismal future is through day trading systems. Now, when I say day trading systems, I am merely referring to the stock market. Are you a regular trader already?

If you are, then you probably know about the money that can be produced. And we sure can use some more. We all need a certain amount of cash to survive and stay afloat. Therefore it’s wise to investigate well-known day trading systems, and find out which route is best for you.

Are you set to earn for the future? Or maybe you’re simply determined to make a living from home. Hey, there’s nothing wrong with this. The fact of the matter is people across the world are doing it every day. Many of us get sick and tired of the office scene with the mad boss-man breathing down our necks. No one wants to grapple with that on a nine to five daily basis. It’s so bad for the heart.

Luckily there are alternative choices at hand. For example, what do you know about day trading systems? If you have never experimented in the stock market, then maybe it’s time to get some training. Luckily it’s not too hard now days. You have a PC or Mac, right? Then you are ready to start. Get online now and learn the tricks of the trade.

Discover all there is to know about recent and popular day trading systems. Enjoy countless pointers and tips free of charge in cyberspace. It’s probably high time you did so. Therefore if you want become a day trader yourself, soak up that important information before you dive in head first. The stock market can be a scary and hectic concept if you lack the essentials.

A few years back I I would not have been able to tell you anything about day trading systems. However, today I have a blast dabbling in the stock market from the privacy of my own home. You can do the same with only online access. Get information on day trading systems while lounging on your couch. Let the Internet be your guide to future investing.

Read more helpful articles from this successful writer about Day Trading and Day Trading And Investments Review at his website daytrading.personalfinanceandinvestment.com

Article Source: SuperPublisher.com

In the first part of the article on How to have a smooth Purchase in Austin , Texas – we had discussed some of the steps you must undertake while Buying Real Estate in Austin. In this concluding article, we will discuss the rest of the things to remember before making any property investment in Austin, Texas.

1) Use your home-buying team as much as possible. Align yourself with the right real estate professional and you will have an entire team of reliable lenders, title Representatives and home inspection companies available to you. Each of these people should work hand in hand with you and each other for your benefit.

2) Be sure to do a final walk through once all the previous owner’s furnishings have been moved to be sure of no surprises. Be absolutely positive the property is in exactly the same condition that you agreed upon in the contract. Things that could not have been spotted before are often unintentionally overlooked.

3) Plan for flexibility. Closing dates are not carved in stone. Allow for certain Contingencies and always have a back-up plan in the event that delays occur. These types of circumstances are not at all uncommon in real estate transactions, so it is important that you are prepared for them.

4) Any and all promises and agreements must be written. If it is not in writing, then assume that it doesn’t exist. Even the best of intentions can be unintentionally misinterpreted, so take the time with your REALTOR to be certain that all agreements have been signed on paper.

5) Remember, your team will work best for you if you are honest and up front with them. Take the time to select the right team of professionals to get you into your new home and do everything possible to make this an enjoyable experience. They will return the favor by getting you into your new home as smoothly as possible.

6) Choose your agent wisely. Working with a full-time professional Austin Commercial Real Estate Agent is a must. Ask questions of your agent. Find out how knowledgeable he or she is about houses currently for sale in your price range and also of houses that have recently sold. Can your agent recommend a good lender that has the reputation of excellent customer service and low rates? Does your agent ask questions of you to have a full understanding of what you are looking for to help you get the most home for the money?

Author: Insight Advisors

Insight Advisors offers a full range of Real Estate services to local, national and international clients, owners and investors. Their areas of operations include Texas Real Estate, Austin Residential Real Estate and Mexico Real Estate. If you are looking for any property, just contact us. We will find it for you!

Article Source: SuperPublisher.com

Buying a new home can be an exciting time, whether it’s your first home or your fifth. However, your savings, your credit rating, and your financial freedom are all on the line when purchasing a new Home in Austin, Texas. You want to feel comfortable when it is time to sign on the dotted line and feel good about the home you are about to purchase. It’s important not to let your emotions cloud your judgment when you set out to buy what is most likely the largest single item of your life – your new home.

1) Before you get to actually looking at homes, take the time to establish your needs and wants. Make a careful assessment of what you absolutely must have in your new home compared to what would just be nice. Be as specific as possible when determining your needs prior to purchase. It will save you much time and concern to do this before looking rather than getting into a new home only to discover that it doesn’t meet your needs.

2) Determine how much you can afford in a home loan and get pre-approved. Set up a budget for monthly payments and be realistic. By assessing your financial situation and getting pre-approved, you can be certain that when you select a new home, you will have the financial backing to get you in as quickly as possible. When considering the purchase of a home, don’t just look at your current financial status. You will probably be in this home for years, and many things can change. Take your future into account as well, looking at such things as job changes and a growing family.

3) Once you begin the process of searching for a home, don’t let emotions cloud your judgment. Just because a house has a nice lawn or some interesting architectural features doesn’t mean it is the perfect one for you. While it is important to consider the aesthetics of a property, consider that much of what you see can be changed. Never judge a house by how the current owner has decorated. Most likely, whatever is inside the house will be gone when the seller leaves, and it will be up to you to paint and decorate.

4) Take the time to view several homes. This doesn’t mean look at every house available on the market, but look at enough properties to get a good feeling that you aren’t just making an impulse buy. When you find the right home, all the work you do in this process will pay off.

5) Once you have selected a home that you feel is right , inspect it thoroughly. Be sure the home is inspected by a professional home inspection company, and go over that report with a fine-toothed comb. By taking the time to do this before buying any Texas, Austin Real Estate, you can save yourself an endless amount of stress after the fact. Don’t take anything for granted. There are many pitfalls that can surface during the process, and it’s vital that you take care of these problems before you move in. When inspecting your home, check for working utilities so there are no surprises later on. Check out all costs and expenses before you sign anything. Taxes, insurance and homeowner dues may appear, and you need to know all of them. Ask as many questions as possible and be very conscious of details.

We will conclude the article in the next part.

Author: Insight Advisors

Insight Advisors offers a full range of Real Estate services to local, national and international clients, owners and investors. Their areas of operations include Texas Real Estate, Austin Residential Real Estate and Mexico Real Estate. If you are looking for any property, just contact us. We will find it for you!

Article Source: SuperPublisher.com